Project Rabbithole

Recently, several private firms have proposed visions & plans for lunar ecosystems, often related to resources: e.g. ispace, SpaceX, and ULA. Indeed, the 2009 remote detection of water by India’s Chandrayaan-1 orbiter and NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter focused attention on lunar resources. The U.S. Geological Survey is taking first steps to evaluate regolith as reserves. Water may be used for refueling; several companies have begun planning its extraction, and envisioning the novel ecosystem needed. Though these organizations may lack the financial means of space agencies, they bring renewed interest in sustainable, continuous operations, vs. the traditional mission-based mode.

Accordingly, technologies and systems are being prepared, including novel extraction concepts like thermal mining. Demand for resources could come not only from exploration needs, but refueling satellites. A key enabler is on-orbit refueling and servicing, for which commercial services have begun, and which may gain important market share. These developments clearly affect the various plans for lunar resources, which have deep uncertainties. Yet no holistic model of its dynamics at an ecosystem level, characterizing the main uncertainties, is known to the authors.

Another key aspect of establishing more permanent, sustainable space operations is logistics. Indeed, though shifting exploration targets to the Moon considerably complicates space logistics needs, space resource industries promise some relief, at the expense of more logistical complexity. This new sophistication requires research. Such an ecosystem will also potentially have a wider impact on the economy.